President-elect Donald Trump and his nominee to lead the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”), Lee Zeldin, intend to “restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs, and make the US the global leader of AI.” “We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water.” Precisely how these objectives mesh to conform with EPA’s statutory obligations for environmental protection is unclear. During his first term, Trump rolled back regulations, slowed enforcement, and reduced workforce funding for EPA—all tactics likely to reappear to achieve the new administration’s campaign promises. Former Congressman Zeldin is not known for his environmental experience or expertise but is considered an effective lawmaker and politician. This article predicts changes in EPA’s priorities and practices that may emerge in the new administration.
Deemphasizing Science and Regulatory Rollbacks
The four principles buttressing EPA’s mission include: follow the science, follow the law, be transparent, and advance justice and equity. Each of these principles is in jeopardy. First, scientists predict that reliance on and recruitment of scientific experts to accomplish EPA’s work will stall. The next chapter for EPA may even include an “anti-science agenda.” Second, in his first term, Trump targeted air, water, waste, and chemical approval regulations for rollbacks, and this time, the expansion of the federal government’s role in business is again a top motivator to cut rules. Either at the agency level or by executive order, actions are likely to unwind progress underway for climate change, permitting, and environmental justice. Impacts on the laws implemented by EPA can be achieved through rulemaking, budgeting, and interagency policy. Consider the ideas floated during 2016-2020. For example, privatizing weather tracking and reporting, forest management policy, and project reviews were mentioned to improve services to businesses and grow American industry. Beyond the influences of sound science and the rule of law, EPA will likely return to the “back to basics” message of former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt with a focus on clean water and clean air manifest by state delegated programs in keeping with the notions of cooperative federalism.
Recent enhancements to environmental justice activities, such as capacity building for communities and agency-wide emphasis on reducing community burdens, are likely to evaporate. The Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights is a candidate for reorganization or elimination. And the current enforcement selection process that targets facilities impacting environmental justice (“EJ”) communities is likely to be deemphasized.
Energy Dominance
Energy dominance, boosting oil and gas production in the United States, is at the top of the new administration’s to-do list. Cutting energy and electricity prices in half within 18 months of taking office, a promise made by President-elect Trump, will require approval of new drilling and pipeline projects that were previously bogged down by environmental reviews. Boosting domestic production and refining could prompt more lenient new source review permitting and enforcement of existing air and water regulations for this industry sector.
Increasing investment, expediting permitting, and prioritizing mega projects will be hard to square under existing regulatory frameworks, like the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). If the new administration were able to exempt oil, gas, and other energy projects from NEPA review, it would drastically change the project development landscape. NEPA implementation was streamlined in 2020 by the initial Trump Administration, reversed by the Biden Administration in 2022, and will likely be refreshed once again. This time, changes may have more force following the decision in Marin Audubon Society v. Federal Aviation Administration, 121 F.4th 902 (D.C. Cir. 2024), holding that the Council of Environmental Quality lacks authority to issue binding regulations that implement NEPA. If that ruling stands, it provides additional justification for the new administration to make changes.
Consistent with the promise of an energy production boom is the promise to unwind commitments to curb climate change and support communities impacted by climate-related events. The knock-on effects of these activities would ripple into other agencies, such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and into other industries, like insurance.
Legislation and Enforcement
The last meaningful update to foundational federal environmental statutes, such as the Clean Air Act (CAA) and Clean Water Act (CWA), was in 1990 when the Clean Air Act Amendments were signed into law by George H.W. Bush. Now with Congress controlled by the same party represented in the White House, legislative changes could emerge. Congress might use this opportunity to enshrine limitations on the applicability or scope of a law (possibly-County of Maui v. Hawaii Wildlife Fund, 140 S. Ct. 1462 (2020)), or limitations on agency authorities to enforce the law, such as prohibition of supplemental environmental projects.
EPA’s enforcement priorities will shift away from today’s focus on mitigating climate change, protection of overburdened communities, and exposure to contamination from “forever chemicals,” among others, to the “back to basics” and quick settlement tone from the initial Trump Administration. EPA’s enforcement function may be disrupted by elimination of the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance and a restructuring of enforcement personnel into the program offices.
Cooperative Federalism and Litigation
The foundational federal environmental statutes are designed to manifest deference to state delegated agencies and narrow interpretations of federal statutory authorities, known as “cooperative federalism.” While states are obligated to implement programs meeting minimum standards for delegation, there is the possibility that a patchwork variety of expectations emerges for businesses operating in different states. States with more lenient enforcement programs bait citizen suits for their regulated communities, specifically CWA and CAA enforcement. Litigation against the new administration may involve claims covering objections to process, to substance, for inaction, for action putting projects at risk. California Governor Gavin Newson is seeking up to $25 million in funding for anticipated legal fights with the incoming administration, for example.
When the new administration settles in and gets to work, there will be change in the world of environmental protection. That prediction is an easy one based on President-elect Trump’s promises to pull the US from the legally binding Paris Agreement, to expand exploration and development of natural resources, and to eliminate unnecessary regulations and processes. These are easy promises to make but harder acts to execute. The new administration will face challenges, and regulated entities will face uncertainty; and four years from now it will all change again.